Superforecasting

Superforecasting With Oracolo™

AI robot in library with students

Overview

Superforecasting is a research-based method for making accurate, probability-driven predictions about real-world events. At the Center for Augmenting Intelligence, we bring this discipline to students and faculty through Oracolo, an AI-enhanced superforecasting assistant that helps users reason clearly, reduce bias, and make better decisions. 

What Is Oracolo™? 

Oracolo is an AI-powered forecasting tool that guides users through: 

  • Breaking down complex questions 
  • Estimating probabilities 
  • Examining evidence and assumptions 
  • Generating future scenarios 
  • Updating forecasts as new information emerges 

It is built to support academic programs, research, and strategic planning across multiple disciplines. 

Key Features

  • Probability forecasts with transparent reasoning 
  • Scenario modeling and uncertainty mapping 
  • Bias-checking prompts 
  • Optional forecast logs for competitions and coursework 
  • Designed to support forecasting challenges and classroom integration 

Benefits

  • Improves Critical Thinking: Teaches structured reasoning and evidence-based decision making. 
  • Reduces Bias: Highlights blind spots, overconfidence, and flawed assumptions. 
  • Supports Learning Across Disciplines: Useful in health sciences, business, political science, engineering, and data analytics. 
  • Scenario Planning: Produces clear short-, medium-, and long-term outlooks. 
  • Continuous Learning: Saves forecasts and compares them to outcomes for skill development. 

University Superforecasting Challenge

The University Superforecasting Challenge gives students and faculty the opportunity to practice real-world forecasting using Oracolo. Participants predict weekly questions ranging from healthcare trends to technology shifts—and are scored using Brier accuracy metrics. 

The challenge builds a campus culture of analytical thinking, collaboration, and evidence-based decision making while preparing students for an AI-augmented workforce. 

Why It Matters 

Oracolo helps universities integrate AI in a safe, ethical, and structured way while improving judgment, strategic planning, and academic performance. It supports Detroit Mercy’s mission to prepare learners for a rapidly changing world where the ability to reason under uncertainty is a critical skill. 

" Knowing what we don’t know is better than thinking we know what we don’t.” ― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction "

Project Type

Research

Goal / Objective

Probability forecasting, Oracolo

Project Timeline

1/2024 - 12/2025

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